“Once more than half a million Palestinians [have evacuated], criticism of Hamas leadership will intensify to the point where signs of collapse may begin to emerge.” That was the assessment of an Israeli security source speaking to Walla, who emphasized that what truly pressures Hamas is not the number of militants killed but the mass movement of civilians leaving their homes.
During situational assessments held Thursday morning at the IDF Southern Command, officials noted that overnight airstrikes and explosions in northern Gaza and Gaza City accelerated another stage in the population’s movement toward the designated humanitarian zone in the south.
According to IDF figures, roughly 400,000 Palestinians have already moved south. “The movement of the population overall, and from Gaza City in particular, is what terrifies Hamas leadership the most. Why? Because the word ‘Nakba’—the catastrophe describing the 1948 War of Independence and the refugee crisis—is burned into their collective memory,” the source said.
Hamas Under Mounting Pressure
“Every time Palestinians leave buildings, abandon their homes, and head south, Hamas comes under immense strain. They need money, vehicles, and functioning roads—which are often destroyed. There is no money for tents, and the resentment and anger end up directed at Hamas,” the source added.
The official explained that Hamas constantly measures not only its military strength but also the extent of its governance across the Strip. “The more people move south, the more power Hamas loses. As the IDF intensifies military pressure in Gaza City, the pressure on civilians will drive them out, cornering Hamas. That’s when the chances for a deal rise.”
Evacuations Worry Hamas More Than Losses in Battle
According to the source, Hamas is not particularly concerned with the number of its operatives killed—even if it reaches the thousands. “But they are deeply worried about the population moving south. The assessment is that once more than half a million Palestinians relocate to al-Mawasi and the coastal areas in the south, criticism of Hamas leadership will mount to the point where signs of collapse may begin to surface. That will be the breaking point.”
The source added that Hamas is working around the clock, both through media messaging and physical force on the ground, to prevent the public from evacuating.
It was also noted that the strikes on Gaza City are being carried out under a structured plan approved by Southern Command chief Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor, aimed at moving the population southward in stages rather than all at once, to avoid chaos.
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