Israel’s security cabinet has approved a bold and far-reaching new military strategy in Gaza, titled “Gideon’s Chariots”, with the declared aims of defeating Hamas, securing the release of hostages, and establishing lasting Israeli control over parts—or potentially all—of the Gaza Strip.
Unlike previous operations, the new plan calls for the IDF to retain control over any territory it captures, marking a significant shift in doctrine. This will mirror the “Rafah model,” where the military fully eliminated threats and integrated the area into a broader Israeli security zone.
The initiative includes relocating Gazan civilians to designated areas for humanitarian relief, separating them from Hamas fighters. While the plan is ambitious, the presence of entrenched Hamas infrastructure in central Gaza and Gaza City raises doubts about how effective the strategy will be once implemented.
Military action is expected to intensify after U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to the region in May. Reinforced by reservists, the IDF plans a large-scale ground campaign that will require mass civilian evacuations from combat zones to southern Gaza.
Occupation and control: a shift in policy
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich openly stated that the operation's intent is not only conquest but long-term occupation. This represents a major departure from Israel’s prior approach of short-term engagements and avoiding prolonged military presence in Palestinian urban areas.
Historically, the IDF avoided policing civilian life, especially post-Disengagement in 2005. The new approach appears to signal a return to pre-Oslo-era conditions, when Israeli forces were embedded throughout Gaza and the West Bank, prior to the creation of the Palestinian Authority.
The governance vacuum
Despite operational clarity, the plan lacks a defined strategy for post-conflict governance. Top Israeli officials have rejected both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority as future rulers of Gaza. However, no viable alternative has been proposed, raising fears of a power vacuum.
Critics warn that Hamas could exploit this gap, reemerging among displaced civilians or maneuvering politically if no stable governing body is installed. Even optimistic observers admit that defeating Hamas militarily does not equate to eradicating its influence without a parallel civil strategy.
What Hamas wants
Hamas likely anticipated a major Israeli response following its October 7 atrocities. Its objective was to shatter the status quo and force a reconfiguration of Israeli-Palestinian dynamics. The group has long aimed to expand its influence into the West Bank, especially as Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas nears the end of his tenure.
Backed by Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and possibly Russia or China, Hamas sees the chaos as an opportunity to unify Gaza with the West Bank under its control, capitalizing on any failure by Israel to establish order.
Conclusion
“Gideon’s Chariots” may represent Israel’s most decisive effort yet to eliminate Hamas, but its success hinges not just on battlefield victories, but on answering one critical question: Who will govern Gaza after the smoke clears? Without a clear vision for civilian administration, the operation risks winning the war while losing the aftermath.
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